At 5am AST (10amBST) on Thursday, Florence was positioned 1170 miles (1885 km) east-southeast of Bermuda.
The Class Three hurricane is packing most sustained winds of 115mph (185 km/h), shifting northwest at 12 mph (19 km/h)
No coastal watches or warnings are in impact at this stage, however swells are anticipated to start affecting Bermuda on Friday and can attain parts of the US East Coast over the weekend, the NHC forecasts.
The storm has weakened from a Class Four at present however continues to be the primary main hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season 2018.
Comply with under for stay updates on Hurricane Florence. All occasions in BST except said in any other case
11.30pm (6.30pm AST) replace: Hurricane Florence downgraded to Class 1
Florence has been downgraded once more to a Class 1 Hurricane, with most sustained wind speeds of 80 miles per hour.
It’s presently heading north-west and can proceed to go west in the direction of the US mainland tomorrow.
Florence is anticipated to proceed weakening by means of at present, however ought to begin to strengthen once more on Friday.
In keeping with the US Nationwide Hurricane Centre “hurricane-force winds lengthen outwards as much as 15 miles” from the centre of the storm.
James Bickerton takes over reporting from Kate Whitfield
9.30pm (4pm AST) replace: NOAA proclaims earliest attainable arrival time of Florence winds
Florence is shifting towards the northwest close to 10 mph (17 km/h), with a flip towards the west-northwest and west with a lower in ahead velocity anticipated by means of Saturday.
Florence might start to maneuver sooner towards the west-northwest over the western Atlantic early subsequent week.
Most sustained winds have decreased to close 105 mph (165 km/h) with increased gusts. Extra weakening is forecast in the course of the subsequent day or two. Nonetheless, Florence is anticipated to stay a hurricane and sure reintensify over the weekend.
Hurricane Florence: Earliest wind arrival occasions
8pm replace: Florence shifts westward, placing Bermuda on discover
In Bermuda, a authorities spokeswoman instructed The Royal Gazette that though the storm is not presently thought of a significant menace, it is a good time for individuals on the island to “replace their storm provide kits.”
And the Nationwide Climate Service mentioned that whereas it is too early to take a position about the place Florence may presumably hit the U.S., “it is best to mud off your hurricane plans and keep tuned!”
7pm replace: Newest NOAA replace says rip currents heading for Bermuda and US
The newest NOAA forecast says swells generated by Florence will start to have an effect on Bermuda on Friday and can attain parts of the U.S. East Coast over the weekend.
These swells are prone to trigger life-threatening surf and rip present situations.
Hurricane Florence: The newest wind forecasts
6.15pm (1.15pm AST) replace: Florence set to re-intensify into subsequent week
Florence has weakened to a Class 2 storm, with high sustained winds of 105 mph, and is anticipated to weaken to Class 1 energy by Friday
Earlier, on Tuesday and Wednesday, Florence intensified to Class Four energy regardless of the presence of widespread sturdy wind shear and solely marginally heat waters.
Nonetheless, wind shear is predicted to drop under 10 knots from late Friday and stay fairly mild by means of at the very least Monday, conducive to restrengthening.
Florence may also move over hotter waters on Friday, supporting intensification.
If this manifests, Florence might be a Class Three once more by Saturday night time.
5.45pm (12.45pm AST) replace: Odds of Florence hitting US East Coast growing
With the storm getting nearer to the coast, forecasts have gotten extra dependable.
Fashions have shifted the observe westward over the previous two days, nearer to the USA.
An inland observe would carry a number of hazards, together with torrential rain and damaging winds over coastal and a few inland areas, and a considerable rise in water above usually dry land in coastal zones.
A storm hugging the coast offshore would lead to heavy rain and powerful winds close to the coast, harmful surf, seaside erosion and coastal flooding.
A observe farther out to sea would confine results to the Atlantic coast, primarily huge waves and rip currents.
Hurricane Florence projected path
4.45pm (11.45am AST): Two situations attainable, however each hit Bermuda
In State of affairs 1, Florence might observe extra to the north than west, holding it east of Bermuda and over the open waters of the central Atlantic subsequent weekend and into the next week.
Tough seas may nonetheless pound Bermuda on this state of affairs.
Florence Florence might be able to curve northward then northeastward out to sea with impacts restricted to an oblique nature within the US
In State of affairs 2, if the excessive stress space stays sturdy, then Florence might full a 3,500-mile journey over the Atlantic and be guided proper into the US. East Coast someplace from the Carolinas to southern New England someday throughout Wednesday or Thursday of subsequent week.
Regardless which state of affairs manifests, Bermuda could also be within the direct path of the storm, even when the storm begins to curve.
Hurricane Florence: There are two attainable situations
3.50pm (10.50am AST) replace: How uncommon is a strike on the US primarily based on Florence’s present place?
From a likelihood standpoint, this can be very uncommon for a hurricane to make landfall alongside the Carolina coast primarily based on Florence’s place as of Thursday, in response to information compiled by The Florida State College.
Accuweather reported that almost all hurricanes that do strike the East Coast are literally farther south within the Atlantic at this level.
Nearly all of hurricanes passing over the a part of the Atlantic the place Florence was on Thursday morning don’t make landfall within the US.
Nonetheless, for the reason that climate sample which will evolve subsequent week over the western Atlantic to the East Coast is uncommon for mid-September, we could also be in uncharted territory.
All prospects have to be thought of at this level.
Hurricane Florence: Satellite tv for pc imagery captured the storm heading towards Bermuda on Thursday morning